在全球人口中开发一个模型来预测乳腺癌诊断时的年龄
Ha Young Kim1,2, Jimmy Mullaert2, Ambre Tondreau2
1Department of Health Sciences, College of Medicine, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea.
Scientific reports
|June 15, 2024
概括
研究人员开发了一个模型来预测全球乳腺癌 (BC) 诊断的平均年龄. 该工具使用人口年龄和大陆数据,有助于在服务不足的地区建立有效的BC查计划.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 确切的诊断平均年龄对于有效的乳腺癌 (BC) 查计划实施至关重要.
- 预测模型可以帮助识别有风险的人群,并指导癌症预防的资源配置.
- 在BC诊断年龄的全球变化需要国家一级的预测工具.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个可靠的模型,以预测BC诊断的平均年龄在国家一级.
- 确定影响BC诊断平均年龄的关键人口和社会经济因素.
- 为在缺乏既定预防计划的地区提供BC查策略的信息提供工具.
主要方法:
- 使用CI5plus数据库 (IARC) 来获取发病率数据 (1993-2012) 和世界银行的数据.
- 开发了一种通用线性模型,将人口年龄,人均GDP和生育率作为固定效应,大陆作为随机效应.
- 使用来自五大洲 (1950-2012年和2013-2017年) 癌症发病率的外部数据集验证了模型.
主要成果:
- 该模型显示了高准确性,对验证集的诊断时预测和观察平均年龄之间的相关性为0.64和0.89.
- 平均相对百分比错误很低 (两个验证组的5.2%和3.1%).
- 人口年龄,GDPPC和生育率是显著的预测因素 (p < 0.001),解释了BC诊断年龄81%的差异.
结论:
- 基于人口年龄和大陆的可靠模型已成功开发,以预测BC诊断的平均年龄.
- 这种预测工具可以支持乳腺癌查计划的实施,特别是在资源有限的国家.
- 该模型的准确性和稳定性为全球癌症控制策略提供了宝贵的见解.
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