家庭混或测量错误? 如何解释来自兄弟姐妹和共同双胞胎对照研究的发现?
Kristin Gustavson1,2, Fartein Ask Torvik3,4, George Davey Smith5
1Department of Psychology, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway. kristin.gustavson@psykologi.uio.no.
European journal of epidemiology
|June 16, 2024
概括
兄弟对照研究中的测量误差可能错误地表明混,即使关联是因果关系. 暴露可靠性降低和兄弟姐妹相关性增加增加了这种风险,可能误解家庭因素.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 遗传流行病学遗传流行病学
背景情况:
- 流行病学研究经常使用非实验性设计评估风险因素与健康结果的关联.
- 观察到的关联可能会被未测量的因素混,需要像兄弟姐妹和共同双胞胎控制等方法来解决家庭混.
- 暴露评估中的测量错误可以引入偏见,可能掩盖真正的因果关联或创造混的错误印象.
研究的目的:
- 调查通过测量错误在兄弟对照模型中引入的偏差,当底层暴露-结果关联是真正的因果关系时.
- 量化暴露可靠性和兄弟关联对兄弟对照研究准确性的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用蒙特卡洛模拟来模拟已知的因果暴露结果关联的场景.
- 模拟数据中的各种参数,如暴露可靠性和兄弟相关性.
- 分析了由此产生的暴露-结果关联以及家庭层面暴露的明显影响.
主要成果:
- 暴露的可靠性下降和暴露中的兄弟相关性增加导致观察到的暴露-结果关联减弱.
- 同时,这些条件膨胀了家庭平均暴露和结果之间的关联,模仿了混.
- 观察到错误结论混的高风险,在特定条件下,30-90%的样本支持这种错误结论 (例如,可靠性=0.7,r=0.4).
结论:
- 兄弟对照研究中的测量错误可能导致错误的混结论,即使存在真正的因果关系.
- 研究人员必须在解释兄弟姐妹和共同双胞胎对照研究的结果时仔细考虑暴露测量的可靠性和预期的兄弟姐妹相关性.
- 这些发现突出了这些设计中存在偏差的可能性,并强调需要进行可靠的暴露评估和仔细的统计解释.
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