评估游轮上传染病爆发潜力和缓解效果的评估
Rahele Mosleh1, Mortaza Baky-Haskuee1, Abbas Ghasemi2
1Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), York University, Toronto, On., Canada.
Journal of theoretical biology
|June 16, 2024
概括
在游轮上实施口罩和疫苗接种政策对于控制疾病爆发至关重要. 这些措施,特别是结合起来,显著减少了确诊病例,并提高了旅游部门的乘客安全.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 邮轮行业是全球旅游业的重要组成部分,每年有数百万乘客.
- 船舶上不同种类的人口的密切接近促进了呼吸系统疾病的快速传播.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个模型框架,用于在游轮上有效的疾病风险管理政策.
- 评估各种缓解策略对控制船上疾病爆发的影响.
主要方法:
- 一个数学模型被开发和校准使用2020年COVID-19爆发的数据在钻石公主号游轮.
- 该模型评估了缓解措施的有效性,包括戴口罩,接种疫苗和旅行前/机上测试.
主要成果:
- 在公共场所佩戴口罩可以将累计确诊病例减少近50%.
- 将口罩和疫苗接种结合起来,可以将累计确诊病例减少94%以上,这是最有效的控制策略.
- 旅行前的检测比在机上进行的检测更有效,用于疫情控制.
- 虽然疫情在乘客中更常见,但这些措施对乘客和机组人员都有好处.
结论:
- 戴口罩和接种疫苗是控制游轮疫情的高效和成本效益措施.
- 涉及乘客和机组人员的多方面的方法对于全面的疾病管理至关重要.
- 战略测试协议,优先考虑旅行前查,对于减轻船上传播至关重要.
相关概念视频
Infection
7.8K
When a pathogen enters the body and reproduces, it can cause an infection, damage body cells, and cause illness symptoms that eventually lead to disease. Therefore, its prevention requires breaking the chain of infection.
The chain begins with pathogens: bacteria, viruses, fungi, prions, or parasites such as protozoa helminths. These can be present on the skin as transient or resident flora, or they can be acquired from the environment. Identifying and treating the type of infection and...
The chain begins with pathogens: bacteria, viruses, fungi, prions, or parasites such as protozoa helminths. These can be present on the skin as transient or resident flora, or they can be acquired from the environment. Identifying and treating the type of infection and...
7.8K
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
122
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
122
Healthcare Associated Infections II: Preventive Measures
2.6K
Essential infection prevention measures are based on the knowledge of the infection chain, the modes of transmission in healthcare settings, and the use of the best practices in all healthcare settings. Compulsory public reporting of healthcare-associated infection rates is needed to allow individuals and the community to make informed choices regarding selecting a healthcare facility.
The best practices for preventing healthcare-associated infections include hand hygiene, patient risk...
The best practices for preventing healthcare-associated infections include hand hygiene, patient risk...
2.6K
Factors Affecting the Risk of Infection
11.6K
The hosts' susceptibility to infection depends on several factors. The integrity of the skin and mucous membranes helps protect the body against microbial attacks. When the skin is altered, the chance of infection, limb loss, and even death increases.
The integrity and count of the white blood cells help the body resist pathogens and fight infection. When impaired, it reduces the body's resistance to pathogens. The acidic pH levels of the gastrointestinal, genitourinary tracts, and skin...
The integrity and count of the white blood cells help the body resist pathogens and fight infection. When impaired, it reduces the body's resistance to pathogens. The acidic pH levels of the gastrointestinal, genitourinary tracts, and skin...
11.6K
Transmission-based Precautions I: Contact, Enteric, and Droplets
3.6K
Transmission-based precautions are for patients known to be infected or suspected to be infected or colonized with organisms that pose a significant risk to others. Some transmission-based precautions include contact, enteric, and droplet.
Contact Precautions:
Contact precautions are the measures taken to prevent the transmission of infectious agents, especially epidemiologically important microorganisms such as MRSA or influenza, primarily transmitted through direct or indirect contact with an...
Contact Precautions:
Contact precautions are the measures taken to prevent the transmission of infectious agents, especially epidemiologically important microorganisms such as MRSA or influenza, primarily transmitted through direct or indirect contact with an...
3.6K
Transmission-based Precautions II: Airborne and Protective Environment
1.2K
Transmission-based precautions are for patients infected or suspected to be infected (or colonized) with organisms posing a significant risk to others. The transmission precautions include airborne and protective environment precautions.
Airborne precautions:
Use airborne precautions when treating patients known or suspected to have diseases that spread through the air—for example, tuberculosis or measles. These organisms are present in smaller droplets expelled by an infected person and...
Airborne precautions:
Use airborne precautions when treating patients known or suspected to have diseases that spread through the air—for example, tuberculosis or measles. These organisms are present in smaller droplets expelled by an infected person and...
1.2K


