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作为组织系统预期的弹性:基于代理的计算方法
1Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogota;, Colombia.
Nonlinear dynamics, psychology, and life sciences
|June 16, 2024
概括
组织弹性模型往往忽视了预期. 本研究使用基于代理的建模来表明,稀疏或集群的网络,而不是完全连接的网络,通过培养各种市场预测策略来增强弹性.
科学领域:
- 组织研究是组织研究.
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
- 系统动态 系统动态
背景情况:
- 有关组织弹性现有的文献主要侧重于从中断中恢复,预测策略的整合有限.
- 正式的模型往往忽略了关键的组织行为,当纳入预期.
- 当前的预测系统模型缺乏对组织动态的全面视图.
研究的目的:
- 解决将预测纳入组织弹性模型中的差距.
- 为在不确定性下进行决策引入基于代理的建模方法.
- 分析组织结构对性和市场适应性的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发一种基于计算代理的模型,模拟组织决策.
- 代理人嵌入各种组织结构,并根据预测的市场状况做出决定.
- 该模型包含感知延迟和不同适应市场变化的能力.
主要成果:
- 完全连接的组织网络可以通过减少预测策略的多样性来阻碍弹性.
- 稀疏或高度集群的网络结构通常会提高组织适应市场变化的能力.
- 组织结构显著影响预测在维持市场波动的表现的有效性.
结论:
- 基于代理的建模提供了一个有价值的框架,用于预期研究组织弹性.
- 网络拓是组织弹性的一个关键因素,影响了适应能力.
- 优化网络结构可以提高组织预测和响应市场动态的能力.
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