双循环:基于强度修改SDID模型的ETS碳减排及其时空特征的影响机制
Xinmeng Tang1, Tao Qin2, Xin He3
1School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Haidian District, 35 Qinghua East Road, Beijing, 100091, China.
Scientific reports
|June 16, 2024
概括
强度修改SDID模型揭示了排放交易系统 (ETS) 减少碳排放的双循环机制. 这种先进的模型量化了ETS的影响,并优化了中国"双碳目标"的政策.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 气候政策分析 气候政策分析
- 计量经济学 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 传统的差异差异 (DID) 模型无法解释政策强度的变化,导致不准确的估计和对机制的有限理解.
- 现有的框架需要改进,以准确评估环境政策的现实影响和影响路径,如排放交易系统 (ETS).
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一个强度修改的SDID模型来研究ETS对碳减排的影响机制.
- 通过模型扩展,探索ETS效应的时空特征和异质性.
- 为实现中国的"双碳目标"提出最佳的ETS水平.
主要方法:
- 开发强度修改SDID模型以纳入政策强度变化.
- 应用扩展模型版本来分析时空模式和ETS的异质效应.
- 估计与政策相关的参数,包括碳配额限制,交易量和价格调整.
主要成果:
- 证实"双循环"机制,其中ETS直接减少碳排放 (2.70%-10.0%影响),内部途径随着时间的推移增强这些效应.
- 估计最佳ETS水平:限制全国碳配额200亿/年,增加贸易量80万/年,并提高价格100元人民币/.
- 空间时间效应的识别:峰值影响在1000公里左右的距离,减少超过1500公里,并在实施后的第四个时期达到峰值.
- 与二氧化硫和烟雾 (尘埃) 排放量的减少观察到协同效应,但与废水或固体废物没有协同效应.
结论:
- 经强度修改的SDID模型提供了对ETS碳减排影响和机制的更准确的评估.
- "双循环"机制对于理解ETS的有效性至关重要,它突出了直接和间接途径之间的相互作用.
- 提供了政策建议,以优化ETS以实现国家碳减排目标并增强环境副效益.
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