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审查不同的预测建模验证方法和数据分区策略:使用地下水建模案例研究的新见解
Alvin Lal1,2, Ashneel Sharan3,4, Krishneel Sharma5
1Global Centre for Environmental Remediation, College of Engineering, Science and Environment, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, New South Wales, Australia.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|June 16, 2024
概括
准确地预测地下水的盐度对于资源管理至关重要. 这项研究验证了GMDH模型,发现持有随机策略与40%的数据分区是预测盐度水平最有效的.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 水文地质学 水文地质学
- 数据科学是数据科学.
背景情况:
- 地下水的盐度会影响水质,农业,工业和公共卫生.
- 可靠的预测模型对于有效地管理地下水资源至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 验证基于数据处理组方法 (GMDH) 的模型,用于预测地下水的盐度.
- 评估三种验证方法 (hold-out,k-fold交叉验证,leave-one-out) 与各种数据分区策略的性能.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个GMDH模型来预测沿海水层的地下水盐度.
- 应用的保留 (最后和随机),k倍交叉验证和离开一次验证方法.
- 利用各种数据分区策略 (例如,40%的随机保留) 并使用RMSE,MSE和R2评估性能.
主要成果:
- 持有随机策略与40%的数据分区产生了最准确的预测 (最低的RMSE) 监测井1,2,和3.
- 在不同的验证方法和数据分区方法中,GMDH模型的性能差异很大.
- 不同的验证策略为模型行为,偏差和差异提供了不同的见解.
结论:
- 验证方法和数据分区策略的选择极大地影响了地下水盐度预测模型的准确性.
- 建议将多种验证技术结合使用,以全面了解模型性能.
- 优化的验证策略提高了地下水盐度预测的可靠性,从而为资源管理提供了信息.
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