控制片使用率对伊朗未来癌症发病率的潜在影响
Saeed Nemati1,2, Amir Reza Dardashti2, Elham Mohebbi3,4
1Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC-WHO), Lyon, France.
EClinicalMedicine
|June 17, 2024
概括
减少伊朗的片使用可以在2035年之前预防数千例癌症病例. 片患病率降低50%可以避免近49000例癌症,特别是肺癌,胃癌和膀癌.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 片消费被国际癌症研究机构 (IARC) 列为致癌物.
- 伊朗占全球片消费的很大一部分 (42%).
- 片使用是几种癌症的相当大的风险因素.
研究的目的:
- 估计到2035年伊朗发生癌症的潜在减少.
- 通过降低片使用率来量化癌症预防.
- 评估减少片消费对特定癌症部位的影响.
主要方法:
- 人口归因分数 (PAF) 用于预测与片有关的癌症.
- 数据包括国家癌症发病率,年龄/性别特定的片使用情况以及相对癌症风险.
- 计算考虑了癌症发病率的年度变化和不同降低患病率的情景.
主要成果:
- 据估计,到2035年,伊朗预计将有3,001,421例新的癌症病例.
- 与片有关的癌症预计将占所有事件病例的30.1%.
- 减少10-50%的片患病率可以预防9,016-49,006种癌症,对肺癌,胃癌和膀癌产生重大影响.
结论:
- 针对片使用的有效癌症预防政策可以在伊朗带来巨大的好处.
- 片使用对未来的癌症发病率构成重大,可预防的负担.
- 旨在减少片消费的公共卫生干预措施对于癌症控制至关重要.
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