由于全球变暖,传统的梅宇 - 巴尤已被暂停
Zhicong Yin1,2, Xiaolei Song1, Botao Zhou1
1Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education / Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.
National science review
|June 17, 2024
概括
由于气候变化,东亚传统的梅雨-雨在很大程度上消失了. 人为变暖是主要的驱动因素,导致极端天气取代温和的降雨.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 东亚气候研究 东亚气候研究
背景情况:
- 梅雨-雨系统在历史上塑造了东亚的自然资源,文明和文化超过一个千年.
- 近几十年来,梅州和州的格局发生了变化,暴雨和干旱增加,这引发了人们对其传统特征的质疑.
研究的目的:
- 量化评估传统的梅州和州降雨特征的变化.
- 确定观察到的变化归因于人为变暖.
- 预测未来在气候变暖的情况下发生传统的梅宇-拜事件的可能性.
主要方法:
- 从1961年到2023年期间,对梅宇-雨量数据进行了定量分析.
- 气候建模,将变化归因于人为变暖.
- 未来的气候预测,以评估传统的梅宇-树的持续性.
主要成果:
- 这项研究量化地表明,在1961年至2023年期间,传统的梅州-州特征几乎完全丧失.
- 大约80%的损失归因于人类引起的 (人为) 变暖.
- 未来的气候场景表明,传统的梅州-州事件的概率显著降低.
结论:
- 梅雨-雨系统的传统特征已经在很大程度上消失了.
- 人为变暖是推动这些变化的主要因素.
- 迫切需要采取适应策略,以应对向更具破坏性的极端天气事件的转变.
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