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最佳气候政策和世界经济发展的未来
Mark Budolfson1, Francis Dennig2, Marc Fleurbaey3
1Philosophy Department at the University of Vermont.
概括
当前几代人可能需要做出更大的牺牲来应对气候变化. 乐观的经济模型低估了发展中国家未来的人口增长和生产率,这表明更高的短期碳税是最佳的.
科学领域:
- 气候经济学是气候经济学.
- 环境政策 环境政策
- 发展经济学发展经济学
背景情况:
- 关于气候经济学的辩论集中在诸如社会时间偏好和不平等厌恶等伦理参数上.
- 目前的模型可能高估了未来的经济趋同,低估了发展中国家的人口增长.
研究的目的:
- 调查未来发展中国家的情景如何影响最佳气候政策.
- 通过纳入修订后的发展预测,重新评估气候经济学的"伦理参数".
主要方法:
- 一个标准气候经济模型的修改.
- 包括未来人口增长率高的可信情景 (特别是撒哈拉以南非洲).
- 包括未来低整体因素生产率 (TFP) 趋同的场景.
主要成果:
- 在修订后的情景下,最佳的短期碳税可能会大大增加.
- 领先的气候经济模型可能对未来的全球减贫和经济改善过于乐观.
结论:
- 最佳的气候政策受到发展中国家未来发展轨迹的重大影响.
- 对人口增长和TFP趋同的修订假设需要更高的立即碳税,以有效缓解气候变化.
关键词:
在J11中,我们可以看到J11.氧气二氧化物 氧气二氧化物 O2Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1Q5 Q5 Q5 Q5 Q5 Q5 Q5 Q5 Q5 Q5 Q5 Q5 Q5 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q9 Q9 Q9 Q9 Q9 Q9 Q9 Q9 Q9 Q9 Q9 Q9 Q9 Q1 Q9 Q9 Q9 Q1 Q9 Q9 Q9 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1碳税是指碳税的税收.气候变化 气候变化 气候变化气候政策 气候政策人口增长 人口增长.总因子生产率的总因子生产率.相关概念视频
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