多种场景土地利用模拟基于合的MOGA-PLUS模型:黄河流域的一个案例
Guanghui Li1, Yinghui Chang1, Pengyan Zhang2,3
1College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng, 475004, China.
概括
黄河流域 (YRB) 的土地利用建模显示,建筑用地扩张导致生态退化. 可持续发展需要平衡经济增长与保护草原和森林.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 地理空间分析的研究.
背景情况:
- 土地利用变化对全球环境动态产生重大影响.
- 黄河流域对区域社会经济增长和生态稳定至关重要.
- 有效的土地利用管理对于YRB内的水和沙管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在YRB中建模未来的土地分配模式.
- 分析土地使用变化的时空演变.
- 为大型河流盆地提供可持续土地资源分配的模板.
主要方法:
- 使用多目标遗传算法 (MOGA) 与PLUS模型相结合.
- 从1990年到2020年为YRB模拟的土地使用场景.
- 预测了2030年空间土地使用模式.
主要成果:
- 建筑用地扩张是景观变化和生态退化的主要驱动因素.
- 气候变化也导致流域面积的扩大.
- 经济发展主要转化为增加建筑用地;草原和森林是生态健康的关键.
结论:
- 越来越多的未使用的土地开发为YRB的可持续发展提供了一条道路.
- 人类活动对土地利用产生重大影响;在政策限制下合理分配至关重要.
- 该研究为其他大型河流流域的土地利用管理提供了一个模型.
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