全球陆地水循环年间变化的不同决定因素
Jinyu Zhu1, Dongqin Yin1, Xiang Li2
1College of Land Science and Technology, State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Agricultural Water Resources, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100083, China.
The Science of the total environment
|June 17, 2024
概括
气候变化加剧了降水变化,影响了水资源. 温度和雪水等主要因素会影响全球不同地区的降水变化.
科学领域:
- 地球和环境科学 地球和环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学 水文学
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在增加降水变化,导致更严重的与水有关的灾害.
- 控制降水变量的划分为其他水文成分的因素仍然不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定影响全球降水变量的划分的主导因素.
- 量化这种分区对不同水气候区域的关键因素的敏感性.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自气候数据记录的陆地水预算数据.
- 使用地理探测器模型 (GDM) 来识别主导因素.
- 应用了线性回归和总微分定律来量化灵敏度.
主要成果:
- 主要因素因水气候而异:湿地区的表面空气温度 (Ta),半干旱地区的雪水相当量 (SWE),干旱地区的储水能力 (Smax).
- 在潮湿地区,降水变化在很大程度上转移到下水流变化,特别是随着变暖.
- 在半干旱地区,减少SWE减少了流水变化分区,同时增加了储存偏差变化.
- 在全球范围内,Ta和降水变化系数 (Pcv) 的联合效应是显著的.
结论:
- 降水变化分区 (VP) 正在发生变化,这对未来气候情景下的水文极端事件具有重大影响.
- 像Ta,SWE和土地覆盖变化等关键因素将推动未来的VP转移,并增加水文风险.
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