关于长期主义的前景
Ingmar Persson1, Julian Savulescu1,2
1Oxford Uehiro Centre for Practical Ethics, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Bioethics
|June 18, 2024
概括
这项研究质疑长远主义 (积极影响长期未来) 的乐观观点. 它认为人类伤害的倾向大于他们获益的倾向,价值观不太可能在没有道德增强的情况下永久锁定.
科学领域:
- 伦理学 伦理学 伦理学
- 未来研究 未来研究
- 伦理哲学 道德哲学
背景情况:
- 长远主义有可能对长期的未来产生重大积极影响.
- 威廉·麦卡斯基尔在"我们欠未来的东西"中的论点支持乐观的长远主义.
- 价值观"锁定"的概念是长期论证的核心.
研究的目的:
- 批判性地评价两个支持乐观的长远主义的关键论点.
- 挑战人类行为主要有利于长期未来的假设.
- 评估积极价值永久塑造未来的可能性.
主要方法:
- 哲学论证和伦理分析.
- 检查人类的动机和行动的实用性.
- 对价值锁定所需条件的分析.
主要成果:
- 人类的行为实际上更容易造成伤害而不是利益,抵消积极的意图.
- 自私行动的意外后果和副作用可能是有害的.
- 没有道德提升,人类的偏见使得积极价值观的永久锁定是不可能的.
结论:
- 对长远的乐观需要对人类行动和动机有更细致的理解.
- 轻易造成伤害对实现积极的长期未来构成重大风险.
- 道德提升可能是确保有利的长期价值锁定的先决条件.
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