核恐怖主义概率的风险评估及其对假设核设施的应用
1Purdue University, School of Health Sciences, Purdue University College of Health and Human Sciences, 550 Stadium Mall Drive, West Lafayette, IN 47907.
Health physics
|June 18, 2024
概括
这项研究开发了一种核恐怖主义风险模型,整合了历史数据,目标吸引力和对手的动机. 该模型计算了核恐怖主义的概率,有助于对设施进行全面的风险评估.
科学领域:
- 核工程 核工程是指核工程.
- 风险分析 风险分析
- 安全研究 安全研究
背景情况:
- 核安全和安全,虽然重叠,但有不同的目标:安全解决无意事故,而安全专注于故意的恶意事件.
- 最初用于安全的潜在设施风险指数 (PFRI) 框架已被调整,以整合概率风险评估 (PRA),以全面了解核设施风险.
研究的目的:
- 在PFRI框架内开发一种新的风险评估模型,以量化核恐怖主义的概率.
- 将核安全和安全风险评估纳入为决策者提供统一的框架.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个风险评估模型,将历史核恐怖主义数据用于威胁频率,分析层次过程 (AHP) 用于目标吸引力,以及美国个人激进化 (PIRUS) 数据表用于对手动机.
- 将模型应用于假设的核设施,以计算核恐怖主义概率.
主要成果:
- 开发的模型成功计算了假设设施的8.97 × 10−3 y−1的核恐怖主义概率.
- 该方法在与传统的安全风险评估相同的风险单元中产生结果,从而促进直接比较.
结论:
- 拟议的系统方法使得核恐怖主义概率的推导成为可能,增强对核设施风险的全面理解.
- 这种综合方法为决策者提供了关于核安全和安全的统一观点,为未来的风险管理进步奠定了基础.
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