生育意图的不确定性和灵活性
Ross Barker1, Isabella Buber-Ennser2
1Department of Methodology, The London School of Economics and Political Science, Columbia House, Aldwych, WC2A 2AE, London, UK; Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences (OeAW), Dr. Ignaz Seipel-Platz 2, 1010 Vienna, Austria.
Advances in life course research
|June 18, 2024
概括
生育意图往往是不确定的,十分之四的人不确定是否有另一个孩子. 超过一半的人在调查之间改变了主意,特别是没有孩子的人,突出了计划生育的动态性质.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 生殖健康 生殖健康
背景情况:
- 大规模调查通常评估生育意图.
- 了解生活过程中的意图修订和不确定性至关重要.
- 生育决策涉及动态变化和固有的不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 突出分析生育意向的变化和不确定性的重要性.
- 识别和比较"可能不是"和"可能是"答案中的不确定性.
- 为了检查调查波之间所述生育意图的变化.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自五个欧洲国家的世代和性别调查 (GGS) 的面板数据.
- 使用描述性分析和桑基图来可视化意图不确定性.
- 进行了多变量分析,重点关注与伙伴关系和就业有关的意图的转变.
主要成果:
- 大约40%的受访者对未来的生育意图表示不确定.
- 一半的受访者表示,调查波之间的意图不同,经常在"可能"类别之间转移.
- 没有孩子的人群显示出最高水平的意图不确定性和修订.
- 伙伴关系和就业显著影响了渐进的过渡和生育意图的重大变化.
结论:
- 生育意向存在于一个确定性范围,从"绝对不是"到"绝对是".
- 同时分析意图变化和不确定性,可以更细致地了解生育动态.
- 伙伴关系和就业环境是塑造生育意向演变的关键因素.
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