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相关概念视频

Probability Histograms01:17

Probability Histograms

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A probability histogram is a visual representation of a probability distribution. Similar a typical histogram, the probability histogram consists of contiguous (adjoining) boxes. It has both a horizontal axis and a vertical axis. The horizontal axis is labeled with what the data represents. The vertical axis is labeled with probability. Each rectangular bar in the histogram is 1 unit wide, which suggests that the area under each bar equals the probability, P(x), where x is 1, 2, 3, and so on.
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Testing a Claim about Population Proportion01:24

Testing a Claim about Population Proportion

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A complete procedure for testing a claim about a population proportion is provided here.
There are two methods of testing a claim about a population proportion: (1) Using the sample proportion from the data where a binomial distribution is approximated to the normal distribution and (2) Using the binomial probabilities calculated from the data.
The first method uses normal distribution as an approximation to the binomial distribution. The requirements are as follows: sample size is large...
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Probability in Statistics01:14

Probability in Statistics

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Probability is the likelihood of an event occurring. The term event is defined as a collection of results of a procedure. An event is a simple event when an outcome cannot be divided into simpler parts.
An example of a simple event is a coin toss. The result of a coin toss is either a head or a tail. Here, head and tail are two simple events. These two simple events make up the sample space. Further, the probability of an event occurring falls within the range of 0 to 1. The probability of an...
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The Availability Heuristic01:08

The Availability Heuristic

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A heuristic is a general problem-solving framework (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). You can think of these as mental shortcuts that are used to solve problems. Different types of heuristics are used in different types of situations, and the impulse to use a heuristic occurs when one of five conditions is met (Pratkanis, 1989):
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Poisson Probability Distribution01:09

Poisson Probability Distribution

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A Poisson probability distribution is a discrete probability distribution. It gives the probability of a number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events happen at a known average rate and independently of the time since the last event. For example, a book editor might be interested in the number of words spelled incorrectly in a particular book. It might be that, on average, there are five words spelled incorrectly in 100 pages. The interval is 100 pages.
The...
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Binomial Probability Distribution01:15

Binomial Probability Distribution

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A binomial distribution is a probability distribution for a procedure with a fixed number of trials, where each trial can have only two outcomes.
The outcomes of a binomial experiment fit a binomial probability distribution. A statistical experiment can be classified as a binomial experiment if the following conditions are met:
There are a fixed number of trials. Think of trials as repetitions of an experiment. The letter n denotes the number of trials.
There are only two possible outcomes,...
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相关实验视频

Updated: Jun 23, 2025

Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
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Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods

Published on: September 19, 2012

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由图标数组引起的概率高估.

Kazuhisa Nagaya1, Hiroyuki Shimizu2

  • 1Faculty of Education, Yamaguchi University, Yamaguchi, Japan.

Acta psychologica
|June 18, 2024
PubMed
概括

图标数组可以在决策中扭曲概率感知. 随机安排和严重的结果显著增加了高估值,影响了风险沟通的有效性.

科学领域:

  • 认知心理学 认知心理学
  • 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
  • 风险沟通 风险沟通

背景情况:

  • 对概率的准确解释对于在风险下做出决策至关重要.
  • 像图标数组这样的视觉辅助工具用于改善概率理解,但可能导致过高估计.
  • 之前的研究发现,图标排列和结果严重程度是概率高估的潜在因素.

研究的目的:

  • 调查图标排列和结果严重性是否相互作用或附加影响概率高估.
  • 检查这些因素对图标数组中呈现的绝对概率估计的影响.

主要方法:

  • 进行了两项涉及1171名参与者的研究.
  • 突出图标的排列和所表示结果的严重程度被操纵.
  • 分析了参与者通过图标数组呈现的概率估计.

主要成果:

  • 图标排列和结果严重程度都独立地导致了概率高估.
  • 这些影响是附加的,而不是互动的.
  • 过高估计在随机图标排列和严重结果中最为明显.

结论:

  • 使用图标数组证实并扩展了以前关于使用图标数组估计过度概率的发现.
关键词:
图标阵列是一个图标阵列.可能性的概率.风险 风险 风险 风险 风险严重程度 严重程度视觉辅助器 视觉辅助器 视觉辅助器

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  • 展示了图标排列和结果严重性对感知偏差的附加效应.
  • 强调在与风险相关的沟通设计中考虑这些因素的重要性.