载体传播疾病的混合拉格朗日-欧勒尔模型.
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Cleveland State University, Cleveland, OH, 44115, USA. d.gao51@csuohio.edu.
Journal of mathematical biology
|June 18, 2024
概括
这项研究引入了考虑宿主通勤和载体迁移的载体传播疾病模型. 疾病传播受到人口流动的影响,基本的繁殖数量决定了结果,并为控制策略提供了界限.
科学领域:
- 传染病的数学建模 传染病的数学建模
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 人口动态 人口动态
背景情况:
- 媒介性疾病给公共卫生带来了重大挑战.
- 了解人口流动对疾病传播的影响对于控制至关重要.
- 现有的模型往往简化了宿主和载体的移动性.
研究的目的:
- 开发和分析一个多贴片,多组载体传播疾病模型.
- 研究宿主通勤和载体迁移对疾病动态的影响.
- 确定基本的繁殖数量及其与人口流动性的关系.
主要方法:
- 构建一个数学模型,包括宿主通勤 (拉格兰) 和矢量迁移 (欧勒尔).
- 基于基本复制数 (R0) 的全球动态分析.
- 独立于移动性矩阵的R0边界的导数.
- 两个补丁,两个组的场景的数值分析.
主要成果:
- 基本的繁殖数 (R0) 决定了全球疾病的稳定性 (无病或特有).
- R0具有独立于宿主居住时间和矢量迁移矩阵的边界.
- 不均的混合通常会增加疾病的持续性;R0是以比例分布最小化的.
- 在同质环境中,可以从断开连接的补丁模型中估计R0.
结论:
- 人口流动性显著影响载体传播疾病的传播.
- 基本的繁殖数为疾病动态提供了一个强大的指标,具有可预测的边界.
- 相对的主机和向量分布将R0最小化,这表明潜在的控制效益.
- 最佳的控制策略可以根据同质和异质环境量身定制.
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