基于医疗保健利用率和慢性疾病共发病率的数据驱动人口细分是如何预测未来的医疗保健利用率和死亡率的?
Andrea Gartner1,2, Rhian Daniel3, Ciarán Slyne4
1Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board, Ynysmeurig House, Navigation Park, Abercynon, CF45 4SN, UK. andrea.gartner@wales.nhs.uk.
BMC public health
|June 18, 2024
概括
使用医疗保健利用率和慢性疾病的数据驱动的患者细分有效预测未来的健康需求,包括紧急病房和死亡率. 这种方法有助于识别有针对性的预防性护理干预措施的风险组.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
- 在医疗保健中的数据科学.
- 预测分析是一种预测分析.
背景情况:
- 使用医疗保健利用数据进行人口细分是未来健康需求的代理.
- 慢性疾病可以通过指示疾病严重程度来增强细分.
- 细分可以针对特定的临床群体进行预防性护理.
研究的目的:
- 评估数据驱动细分能够预测未来结果的能力.
- 评估基于医疗保健利用率和并发症的细分.
- 预测紧急住院,A&E出席,全科医生联系和死亡率.
主要方法:
- 对412.997名患者的链接健康记录进行分析.
- K-意味着基于使用情况和慢性疾病创建10个细分的集群.
- 后勤回归模型与火车/测试分割来比较预测性能.
主要成果:
- 当被添加到人口统计模型中时,细分部分改善了所有结果的预测.
- 紧急入院预测从AUC的0.65增加到0.73与细分.
- 仅使用细分的模型的表现几乎与完整模型一样好.
结论:
- 数据驱动的细分展示了对各种健康结果的令人满意的预测能力.
- 分段对于识别需要预期护理的患者组是有价值的.
- 通过特定的诊断或风险分层工具,可以改进识别.
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