巴西结核病发病率:2001年至2021年间的时间序列分析和到2030年的预测
Marcus Tolentino Silva1, Taís Freire Galvão2
1Universidade de Brasília, School of Health Sciences, Public Health Department - Brasília (DF), Brazil.
概括
巴西的结核病发病率在2014年之前一直在下降,然后增加,而大流行导致数据异常. 预测显示,到2030年,发病率将恢复到2000年代的水平,强调需要加强预防和控制战略.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 时间序列分析 时间序列分析
背景情况:
- 结核病 (TB) 仍然是一个重大的全球卫生挑战.
- 监测结核病发病趋势对于有效的控制策略至关重要.
- 巴西面临着不断波动的结核病发病率,需要进行更新的评估.
研究的目的:
- 分析2001年至2022年巴西结核病发病率.
- 预测到2030年巴西每月的结核病发病率.
- 为与可持续发展目标 (SDGs) 保持一致的公共卫生干预提供信息.
主要方法:
- 采用时间序列研究设计,使用来自巴西可报告疾病信息系统的每月结核病数据.
- 使用细分线性回归来确定结核病发病率的趋势变化 (2001-2022年).
- 应用季节性自回归集成移动平均 (Sarima) 模型用于每月结核病发病率预测 (2023-2030年).
主要成果:
- 从2001年到2014年,结核病发病率下降,随后从2015年开始大幅增加.
- 2020年4月,COVID-19大流行导致报告病例急剧下降,随后出现加速增长.
- 预计2030年结核病发病率为4.64例/月/100万人口,与2000年代初的水平相似.
- 在排除大流行期间时,Sarima模型表现出4.1%的错误率的稳定性.
结论:
- 从2015年开始,结核病减少趋势的逆转,与经济危机和流行病相吻合,强调了复杂的影响因素.
- 萨里马模型是流行病监测和预测结核病发病率的宝贵工具.
- 增加对结核病预防和控制的投资对于实现减少结核病的可持续发展目标至关重要.
相关概念视频
01:29Pulmonary Tuberculosis I
231
Tuberculosis, often called TB, is a contagious illness primarily caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. It mainly affects the lung parenchyma but can also impact other body parts.
Causative Organism
The primary infectious agent causing tuberculosis is Mycobacterium tuberculosis, a slow-growing, acid-fast, aerobic rod that exhibits sensitivity to heat and ultraviolet light. Instances of Mycobacterium bovis and Mycobacterium avium contributing to the development of TB infection are rare.
Mode of...
Causative Organism
The primary infectious agent causing tuberculosis is Mycobacterium tuberculosis, a slow-growing, acid-fast, aerobic rod that exhibits sensitivity to heat and ultraviolet light. Instances of Mycobacterium bovis and Mycobacterium avium contributing to the development of TB infection are rare.
Mode of...
231
01:26Pulmonary Tuberculosis IV
134
Tuberculosis, more commonly referred to as TB, is an infectious disease stemming from Mycobacterium tuberculosis. While it primarily impacts the lungs, TB can also affect other body areas. Given its severity and global impact, timely and accurate diagnosis is crucial for controlling its spread and improving patient outcomes.
Several diagnostic approaches are used to detect TB. The conventional method is the Tuberculin Skin Test (TST), also known as the Mantoux test. However, this method has...
Several diagnostic approaches are used to detect TB. The conventional method is the Tuberculin Skin Test (TST), also known as the Mantoux test. However, this method has...
134
01:28Pulmonary Tuberculosis II
217
Tuberculosis, or TB, is a bacterial infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. While its primary impact is on the lungs, leading to pulmonary tuberculosis, it can also affect various other organs, a condition referred to as extrapulmonary tuberculosis.
Here is a detailed explanation of its pathophysiology:
Transmission: The process begins when a person inhales droplet nuclei containing M. tuberculosis. These are typically released into the air when an individual with pulmonary or...
Here is a detailed explanation of its pathophysiology:
Transmission: The process begins when a person inhales droplet nuclei containing M. tuberculosis. These are typically released into the air when an individual with pulmonary or...
217
01:31Pulmonary Tuberculosis III
321
Tuberculosis (TB) is a contagious infection primarily affecting the lung parenchyma but which can also affect other body parts. TB can be classified based on disease development, presentation, and the affected anatomical site.
The first classification is based on the development of the disease, and it includes the following categories:
The first classification is based on the development of the disease, and it includes the following categories:
321
01:28Pulmonary Tuberculosis V
177
Medical management of tuberculosis (TB) patients involves a comprehensive approach that includes diagnosis, treatment, and monitoring. The specific strategies can vary depending on the type of tuberculosis (latent or active), the patient's overall health status, and other considerations.
Latent tuberculosis infection occurs when TB bacteria are present in a person's body, but are not causing illness or symptoms. It is not contagious, and preventive treatment is crucial to avoid the...
Latent tuberculosis infection occurs when TB bacteria are present in a person's body, but are not causing illness or symptoms. It is not contagious, and preventive treatment is crucial to avoid the...
177
01:08Prevalence and Incidence
455
In statistical epidemiology and health sciences, two essential metrics—prevalence and incidence—are fundamental for understanding disease dynamics within a population. These measures enable public health officials, epidemiologists, and researchers to assess the burden of diseases, allocate resources effectively, and design impactful public health policies and interventions.
Prevalence indicates the proportion of individuals in a population who have a specific disease or health...
Prevalence indicates the proportion of individuals in a population who have a specific disease or health...
455