预测应对气候变化的反应使用联合物种,空间依赖,生理指导的丰度模型
Christopher A Custer1, Joshua S North2, Erin M Schliep3
1Pennsylvania Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA.
Ecology
|June 20, 2024
概括
气候变暖威胁到物种的分布. 一种新的联合物种,空间依赖生理引导丰度 (jsPGA) 模型通过整合热生理和空间因素来改善鱼类的预测.
科学领域:
- 生态学和气候变化生物学生态学
- 水生生态学 水生生态学
- 生理生态生态学生理生态学
背景情况:
- 预测物种对气候变暖的反应通常涉及将当前关系推断到新的条件,从而导致不准确的预测.
- 纳入物种的热生理学和对空间依赖性的考虑可以提高对poikilotherms的生态预测的现实性.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一种联合物种,空间依赖生理指导丰度 (jsPGA) 模型,用于预测多种物种对气候变暖的反应.
- 评估预计气候变暖对明尼苏达州湖泊中八种鱼类的繁多和分布的影响.
主要方法:
- 该研究使用了一种新的jsPGA模型,采用基础函数方法来捕捉物种和空间依赖.
- 该模型用于预测明尼苏达州湖泊在未来气候场景下八种鱼类的丰度和灭绝概率.
主要成果:
- 一种适应寒冷的鱼类在预计的变暖下,在目前的范围内表现出极高的灭绝概率.
- 其他物种表现出不同预测的丰度变化,与它们的热生理学相关.
- 虽然强烈的物种依赖性没有被广泛识别,但空间依赖性各不相同,这凸显了考虑两者的重要性.
结论:
- jsPGA模型提供了一个可靠的框架,用于预测新型热条件对波伊基热丰度,分布和灭绝风险的影响.
- 整合生理特征和空间因素对于在气候变化中准确的生态预测至关重要.
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