采矿 LDA 关于建筑工程变化风险的主题基于分级证据
Lianghai Jin1,2,3,4, Chenxi Li1,2, Zhongrong Zhu1,2,4
1Hubei Key Laboratory of Hydro-Power Construction and Management, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, Hubei, China.
PloS one
|June 20, 2024
概括
本研究引入了一种新方法,通过对证据可靠性的分级来管理工程变化 (EC) 风险. 包括设计缺陷在内的技术风险被确定为最重要的EC风险.
科学领域:
- 工程管理工程管理工程管理
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 信息科学 信息科学 信息科学
背景情况:
- 工程变更 (EC) 风险可能会对项目结果产生负面影响,包括时间表,成本,质量和利益相关者的满意度.
- 当前的EC风险管理方法往往缺乏可靠的证据选择,并没有充分考虑证据的质量和可靠性.
- 证据分类对于EC风险管理中可靠的决策至关重要,提供科学和可靠性支持.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种方法来识别和优先考虑与建筑工程变化 (EC) 相关的潜在风险.
- 通过将证据分级与主题分析相结合,提高EC风险管理的可靠性.
主要方法:
- 提出了一种结合证据分级理论和隐性迪里克莱特分配 (LDA) 主题分析的方法.
- 用基于证据的分级理论将EC风险的证据来源分为三个可信度级别.
- 使用LDA主题建模分析了更高可信度的证据,通过专家调查确定了EC风险主题,因素和关键风险.
主要成果:
- 确定了五个突出的EC风险主题:合同,技术,资金,人员和其他危险.
- 技术风险成为欧盟风险中最重要的类别.
- 确定的主要风险包括工程设计缺陷,错误和遗漏.
结论:
- 拟议的方法有效地识别和优先考虑EC风险,利用证据分类和LDA主题分析.
- 了解EC风险的层次和性质,特别是技术风险,对于有效的项目管理至关重要.
- 可靠的证据评估对于减轻工程变化的负面影响至关重要.
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