优化高速公路段的碰撞风险模型:重点关注道路几何设计特征,交通运行状态和碰撞单元的异质影响
Jia Li1, Chengqian Li1, Xiaohua Zhao1
1Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering, College of Metropolitan Transportation, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|June 20, 2024
概括
这项研究通过考虑道路设计和交通变化,改善了高速公路撞车风险预测. 组合随机参数逻辑模型最好地捕获未观察到的碰撞单元差异,以更好地管理交通安全.
科学领域:
- 运输工程 运输工程
- 交通安全 交通安全 交通安全
- 预测建模预测建模
背景情况:
- 现有的交通事故风险预测模型通常依赖于密集部署的探测器,这些探测器在许多高速公路上并不常见,特别是在中国.
- 高速公路段由于道路几何形状 (在山区很常见) 和交通操作 (城市通勤功能) 的变化而表现出显著的异质性.
- 发生碰撞的机制在路段上有所不同,因此需要考虑可观测和不可观测异质性的模型.
研究的目的:
- 调查可观测和不可观测的异质性对高速公路段的交通事故风险预测的影响.
- 开发和验证先进的统计模型,用于在环境中预测碰撞风险,以大距离的探测器和复杂的道路几何结构.
- 为交通安全管理部门提供一个实际的框架.
主要方法:
- 隐形类分析 (LCA) 和隐形形状分析 (LPA) 用于根据几何设计和交通运行状态对道路段进行分类.
- 采用二进制逻辑模型来评估结合可观测异质性的性能.
- 二元条件逻辑模型和集成随机参数逻辑 (GRPL) 模型被开发用于分析崩单位之间的未观察到的异质性.
主要成果:
- 结合道路几何设计特征和交通运行状态的二进制logit模型在预测碰撞风险方面表现出卓越的性能.
- 组合随机参数逻辑 (GRPL) 模型在分析未观察到异质性时,与二进制条件逻辑模型相比,显示出更好的合适性.
- 该研究成功地建立了一种适用于高速公路段的碰撞风险预测范式,该范式适用于检测器覆盖范围有限和几何特征可变的高速公路段.
结论:
- 考虑到可观察的 (道路几何,交通操作) 和不可观察的 (撞车单位差异) 异质性对于准确的高速公路撞车风险预测至关重要.
- GRPL模型提供了一种可靠的方法,用于处理未观察到的异质性在事故数据分析.
- 拟议的预测范式提供了有价值的见解和工具,以加强在具有挑战性的高速公路网络上的交通安全管理.
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