实现医疗保健能力需求的可靠预测:范围审查和证据映射
Simon Grøntved1, Mette Jørgine Kirkeby2, Søren Paaske Johnsen2
1Psychiatry, Aalborg University Hospital, Aalborg, Denmark; Danish Center for Health Services Research, Department of Clinical Medicine, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark.
International journal of medical informatics
|June 20, 2024
概括
统计预测模型通过估计床位,人员和患者住宿需求来帮助医疗保健能力规划. 然而,许多模型缺乏常规验证,这影响了它们在医院环境中的可靠实施.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健管理的管理
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 随着COVID-19的爆发,人们越来越需要医疗保健能力规划和危机准备.
- 医疗保健系统还必须适应疾病患病率和人口统计的逐步变化.
- 统计预测模型为积极的医疗保健规划提供了宝贵的见解.
研究的目的:
- 系统地审查和映射使用统计预测模型进行医院医疗保健能力估计的研究.
- 识别和描述这些模型的方法,能力测量,预测时间和设置.
主要方法:
- 系统的文献审查和证据映射研究从MEDLINE和Embase.
- 提取有关预测方法,能力测量,预测时间,医疗保健设置,目标诊断,验证和实施的数据.
- 分析模型的分类为离散事件模拟,通用线性模型,速率乘法,区块模型,时间序列分析和机器学习.
主要成果:
- 选择了84项研究,重点关注医院床位,人员配置和住院时间.
- 时间序列分析 (26%) 和通用线性模型 (25%) 是最常用的方法.
- 传染病 (29%) 和一般能力需求 (29%) 是主要的预测领域,约一半的模型报告的验证有限.
结论:
- 预测模型可以支持医疗保健利益相关者设计能力估计策略.
- 值得关注的是,许多应用算法缺乏常规性能验证.
- 关于能力规划模型的实施和后续验证的信息很少.
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