用于适用于水文建模研究的CMIP6模型的性能评估 - - 澳大利亚的案例研究
Riwaz Kumar Adhikari1, Abdullah Gokhan Yilmaz1, Bandita Mainali2
1Department of Engineering, La Trobe University, Melbourne 3086, VIC, Australia.
The Science of the total environment
|June 20, 2024
概括
选择合适的气候模型是精确水资源管理的关键. 本研究提出了一种强大的方法来评估合模型对比项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 模型用于澳大利亚的水文影响评估.
科学领域:
- 水文和气候科学 水文和气候科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
- 气候建模气候模型
背景情况:
- 对流域水文学的准确气候变化影响评估对于有效的水资源管理至关重要.
- 气候模型的选择显著影响了水文影响估计的可靠性.
- 合模型相互比较项目的第六阶段 (CMIP6) 为此类评估提供了众多模型.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一种方法来选择合适的气候模型进行水文研究.
- 根据其对影响澳大利亚降雨的水文变量和大气循环的模拟,评估八种CMIP6气候模型.
- 使用统计指标和多标准决策技术对所选模型进行排名.
主要方法:
- 使用五个统计指标评估八个CMIP6气候模型:根平均平方误差 (RMSE),空间相关性 (SC),百分比偏差 (Pbias),规范化根平均平方误差 (NRMSE) 和纳什-萨特克利夫效率 (NSE).
- 应用妥协编程 (CP),一种多标准决策技术,用于对模型进行排名.
- 评估重点是模拟与澳大利亚降雨相关的水文变量和大规模大气循环.
主要成果:
- 总体而言,HadGEM3-GC31-LL是澳大利亚排名第一的模型,其次是GFDL-ESM4,CESM2-CAM6-RT和CanESM5.
- 在大多数评估类别中,MIROC6的表现始终较差.
- CESM2-CAM6-RT,HadGEM3-GC31-LL和GFDL-ESM4被确定为模拟水文变量的前三大模型.
结论:
- 拟议的方法为水文影响研究中的气候模型选择提供了强大的和可复制的方法.
- 这些发现为选择合适的CMIP6模型提供了有价值的指导,用于在澳大利亚和潜在的其他地区进行气候变化影响评估.
- 有效的气候模型选择对于改善气候变化下的未来水资源管理策略的准确性至关重要.
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