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2024年:通过数学分析预测前爬游泳的创纪录表现
Aurélien Patoz1,2, Louis Finiel1, Fabio Borrani1
1Institute of Sport Sciences, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
Frontiers in physiology
|June 21, 2024
概括
这项研究预测了未来的游泳世界纪录 (WRs),使用了整合跑步和游泳数据的新型模型. 该模型预计,在2024年,在400米和800米比赛中,男性将获得新的WR,在多个距离比赛中,女性将获得更多的WR.
科学领域:
- 运动科学 运动科学 运动科学
- 生理学 生理学 生理学
- 游泳表现分析 游泳表现分析
背景情况:
- 预测运动表现,特别是世界纪录 (WRs),是复杂的.
- 之前的性能进展模型可能会受到外部因素的影响,例如泳装技术.
- 整合多样化的生理和性能数据提供了更强大的预测方法.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种用于预测未来前爬行游泳世界纪录的新方法.
- 为了在2024年在各种距离中为男性和女性游泳者预测潜在的WR.
- 为了尽量减少历史性表现异常的影响,例如全身泳装时代.
主要方法:
- 从1995年至2023年抽取了顶级跑步和游泳表现.
- 开发了一个预测模型,将生理特征 (有氧功率,无氧容量,功率下降) 与性能速度和持续时间相关联.
- 应用该模型来预测不同距离的男性和女性游泳者的潜在WR.
主要成果:
- 在预测和实际速度之间实现了0.56%±0.17%的平均相对误差,用于前爬行游泳 (50-1500m,1995-2023).
- 预计将在400米和800米前爬行比赛中获得新的男性WR.
- 预计将有更多的新的女性WR,包括50米,200米,400米和800米的距离.
结论:
- 基于生理参数的预测模型为游泳表现提供了可信的估计.
- 该研究证实,到2024年,超越现有世界纪录的趋势将持续到2024年.
- 竞技游泳继续进步,由卓越的运动员和生理学理解驱动.
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