对概率神经网络进行有效的训练,以进行生存分析
IEEE journal of biomedical and health informatics
|June 21, 2024
概括
诸如蒙特卡罗脱落 (MCD) 和光谱正常化神经高斯过程 (SNGP) 等替代方法在深度概率生存模型中提供了高效的不确定性估计,在不增加复杂性的情况下匹配变量推理 (VI) 性能.
科学领域:
- 机器学习 机器学习
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 计算生物学 计算生物学
背景情况:
- 变量推理 (VI) 是深度学习中贝叶斯推理的标准,但在计算上昂贵,特别是在高维度中.
- 现有的替代方案,如蒙特卡洛脱落 (MCD) 和光谱正常化神经高斯过程 (SNGP),在生存分析中未得到充分利用.
- 在大数据集上训练深度概率生存模型需要高效的推理方法,具有低计算开销.
研究的目的:
- 研究非变量推理 (VI) 方法,用于在大型高维数据集中训练深度概率生存模型.
- 在生存分析中评估VI,MCD和SNGP的预测性能,不确定性校准和模型复杂性.
- 确定MCD和SNGP是否可以在不增加模型复杂性的情况下匹配或超过VI的性能.
主要方法:
- 实施并比较了三个概率方法:变量推理 (VI),蒙特卡洛脱落 (MCD) 和光谱正常化神经高斯过程 (SNGP).
- 在MIMIC-IV数据集上评估方法,评估预测准确性 (一致性指数,平均绝对误差) 和不确定性校准.
- 分析了与每个推理技术相关的模型复杂性和计算开销.
主要成果:
- 在MIMIC-IV数据集上,MCD表现出与VI相比的预测性能 (一致性指数:0.748与0.743;MAE:254.9与254.7).
- MCD提供了C校准的不确定性估计,而SNGP在所有测试数据集中实现了D校准的生存功能 (4/4),表现优于VI (2/4).
- 非VI方法显示出具有降低计算复杂性的可比或改进性能的潜力.
结论:
- 蒙特卡洛脱落 (MCD) 和光谱正常化神经高斯过程 (SNGP) 是可行的,计算效率高的替代方案,用于深度概率生存分析的变量推理 (VI).
- 这些方法提供了竞争力的预测准确性和改进的不确定性校准,特别是在高维设置中.
- 这些发现鼓励在计算效率至关重要的大型数据集中更广泛地采用MCD和SNGP进行生存分析.
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