在不同的共享社会经济路径下,对喜马拉雅索马拉塔植物的物种发生概率和气候变化反应进行建模
Aryan Anand1, Vinod Kumar Garg2
1Department of Environmental Science and Technology, Central University of Punjab, Bathinda, Punjab, India. aryananand2010@gmail.com.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|June 22, 2024
概括
气候变化威胁着喜马拉雅山脉的Ephedra gerardiana (Somalata) 息地,在高排放场景下,预计到2100年将大幅减少. 保护工作可能需要适应物种分布向更高海拔地区的变化.
科学领域:
- 生态与保护生物学 生态与保护生物学
- 生物地理学 生物地理学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
背景情况:
- 埃弗德拉·杰拉迪亚纳 (Somalata) 是一个重要的喜马拉雅植物.
- 评估其当前分布和未来预测对于保护至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了评估Ephedra gerardiana目前的分布概率.
- 在不同的共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 下,预测其空间分布变化到2100年.
主要方法:
- 使用最大模型 (MaxEnt) 采用274个事件数据点.
- 包括19个生物气候变量作为预测因素.
- 通过使用AUC,连续博伊斯指数,真实技能统计和kappa值来验证模型.
主要成果:
- 根据SSP5-8.5 (化石燃料养) 情景,预计E. gerardiana的息地将大幅减少,其位将转移到更高的海拔地区.
- 尼泊尔喜马拉雅山脉显示了最大的息地减少,而不丹则经历了面积增长.
- 包括希马查尔邦,乌塔拉罕德,查和克什米尔和锡克姆在内的印度地区对气候变化表现出负面反应.
结论:
- 气候变化对像E. gerardiana.这样的特有物种的分布产生了重大影响.
- 年平均温度,同热度,日间温度范围和降水季节性是关键的影响变量.
- 研究区域内的受保护地区面临着更大的脆弱性,需要适应性保护策略和潜在的边界调整.
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