构建和评估一个实用的模型来测量健康调整的预期寿命 (HALE) 在中国
San Qian Chen1,2, Yu Cao1,2, Jing Jie Ma1,2
1School of Public Health, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Donghu Campus, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, 330006, PR China.
BMC public health
|June 22, 2024
概括
这项研究开发了一种简单的模型,以准确测量中国的残疾人 (YLD) 率. 这种方法简化了健康预期 (HALE) 计算,这对于中国政府的战略规划至关重要.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 健康寿命预期 (HALE) 是中国战略规划的一个关键指标.
- 测量HALE是具有挑战性的,因为对残疾人生活年数 (YLD) 率的复杂数据要求.
- 准确的YLD率计算对于有效的HALE测量和国家健康规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种简单且高度适用的模型来测量中国的YLD率.
- 为应对在战略规划中计算HALE目标值时的数据限制所带来的挑战.
- 使用现有的中国数据资源,创建一个可行的YLD测量解决方案.
主要方法:
- 使用皮尔森相关性和基于GBD 2019数据的全球最佳方法选的预测变量.
- 采用了缺少数据的支线插值和多重线性回归来构建YLD速率模型.
- 使用沙利文方法进行HALE测量和蒙特卡洛模拟用于不确定性间隔.
主要成果:
- 开发了一个三输入参数模型来测量特定年龄的YLD率,按性别分别计算.
- 该模型包括传染病发病率,慢性疾病发病率 (≥15年) 和五岁以下儿童死亡率.
- 在YLD和HALE计算中,实现了低的平均绝对误差 (MAE) 和平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE),性别差异较小.
结论:
- 成功构建了一个高精度的模型来测量中国的YLD速率.
- 该模型使用三个常规的国家监测指标作为预测变量.
- 这为国家和地区的HALE测量提供了现实的和可行的解决方案,特别是有限的数据.
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