从大地震的有序顺序中推断出最大幅度
1Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zürich , Zürich, Switzerland.
概括
新的工具推断出地震的最大强度,在13个案例中没有发现废水处理或水力压裂对此有影响的证据. 诱导的地震危险似乎没有界限,需要更新的风险管理策略.
科学领域:
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
- 地震学 地震学
- 地震危险分析 地震危险分析
背景情况:
- 规模较大的地震往往是危险估计的代理.
- 了解诱导性地震对于地下作业至关重要.
- 目前的方法可能无法完全捕捉到最大的地震潜力.
研究的目的:
- 调整订单统计,从目录中推断出最大的地震强度.
- 开发工具来识别影响最大幅度的影响,并量化它.
- 测试关于基于体积对诱导地震性的影响的假设.
主要方法:
- 订单统计的应用用于最大大小推断.
- 测试假设,以确定大小的影响.
- 最大概率估计 (MLE) 用于大小量化.
- 基准测试工具与合成和现实世界的地震数据.
主要成果:
- 开发的工具有效地识别和量化最大地震强度.
- 没有证据表明基于体积的过程影响了13个诱导地震的案例.
- 所有测试的情况都是通过无限大小分布充分解释的.
结论:
- 诱导的地震危险一般应被视为无限的.
- 开发的工具可以识别有限的案例,如果存在的话.
- 这项研究为了解和管理地震风险提供了改进的方法.
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