COVID-19 的经济影响:来自使用私营部门数据建立的新公共数据库的证据
Raj Chetty1, John N Friedman2, Michael Stepner3
1HARVARD UNIVERSITY, UNITED STATES.
概括
这项研究创建了一个实时的经济数据库来分析COVID-19的影响. 它发现对高薪和低薪工人的影响不平等,刺激措施部分缓解了失业,但没有恢复充分就业.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 宏观经济学 宏观经济学
- 公共政策 公共政策
背景情况:
- 由于COVID-19的流行,造成了前所未有的经济破坏.
- 了解不同人口的实时经济影响对于有效的政策响应至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 使用匿名的私营部门数据构建一个公开可用的,实时的美国经济活动数据库.
- 分析COVID-19流行病对各种经济指标和人口群体的异质影响.
- 评估财政刺激政策在缓解经济衰退方面的有效性.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个数据库,以实时的细分水平跟踪消费者支出,企业收入,工作位和就业率.
- 通过按县,部门和收入群体分类数据,分析了流行病引起的经济变化.
- 通过实时估计边际消费倾向来评估财政刺激支付的影响.
主要成果:
- 高收入人士的支出削减对小企业和低薪工人产生了不成比例的影响.
- 与高工资工人相比,低工资工人经历了更严重和持续的失业.
- 财政刺激措施增加了支出,特别是在疫情初期,但由于健康驱动的支出冲击,没有完全恢复就业.
结论:
- 来自私人来源的实时数据可以为经济研究和政策提供宝贵的见解.
- 财政政策可以缓解经济冲击,但可能无法完全抵消与健康相关的消费者支出下滑.
- 持续的就业差距凸显了最初经济中断对劳动力供应的长期后果.
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