寄生虫的流行程度取决于感染状态和宿主的风险依赖的分散
Celina B Baines1, Allison K Shaw2
1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto , Toronto, Ontario M5S 3B2, Canada.
概括
主体分散影响寄生虫的传播,但寄生虫依赖性分散 (PDD) 可以以复杂的方式改变区域寄生虫的流行. 了解PDD对于预测疾病动态和生物多样性威胁至关重要.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 寄生虫的传播威胁着全球生物多样性和人类福利.
- 宿主分散是寄生虫空间动态的关键,但通常被认为是恒定的.
- 越来越多地认识到寄生虫依赖分散 (PDD),其中分散因感染而有所不同.
研究的目的:
- 模拟不同形式的PDD如何影响直接传播寄生虫的流行.
- 调查PDD对宿主寄生虫转型人口动态的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个metapopulation模型来模拟寄生虫传播和宿主分散.
- 将各种形式的寄生虫依赖分散纳入模型.
- 分析了PDD,传播率,毒性和分散死亡率如何影响寄生虫的流行.
主要成果:
- 主体分散可以增加,减少或非单调地改变寄生虫的流行程度,这取决于PDD类型和系统参数.
- 结果与之前的模型相反,假设寄生虫独立分散,预测随着分散增加的患病率.
- PDD显著改变了宿主分散和寄生虫流行之间的关系.
结论:
- 记载PDD对于准确了解宿主-寄生虫动态至关重要.
- 预测寄生虫的流行需要考虑宿主如何改变传播以应对感染.
- 这项研究为保护战略和预测环境变化下的疾病传播提供了信息.
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