在过渡到清洁汽车的过程中,燃料电池和电池技术之间的协调动态
Eugenie Dugoua1,2,3,4, Marion Dumas1
1Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom.
概括
汽车行业的技术不确定性
科学领域:
- 技术创新技术创新技术创新
- 气候变化缓解减缓 气候变化缓解减缓
- 工业经济学 工业经济学
背景情况:
- 经济活动与稳定的气候相协调,需要快速的技术变革.
- 汽车行业向电动汽车 (EV) 的过渡凸显了燃料电池电动汽车 (FCEV) 和电池电动汽车 (BEV) 之间的选择.
- 了解技术不确定性对公司战略,政策有效性和转型速度的作用至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析汽车行业电动汽车技术选择中的全球协调游戏.
- 调查技术互补性和供应链结构对这种选择的影响.
- 评估国家政策的有效性与外部创新溢出效应.
主要方法:
- 分析专利数据,供应链关系和国家政策.
- 记录FCEV和BEV的历史趋势和行业动态.
- 模拟汽车行业的技术转型作为一个协调游戏.
主要成果:
- 汽车行业最初偏爱FCEV,但在2008年左右转向BEV.
- 国家政策在协调全球电动汽车技术采用方面取得了有限的成功.
- 外部创新溢出效应对行业向电动汽车的转变产生了重大影响.
结论:
- 转向电动汽车的转变是由国家政策之外的因素驱动的,特别是外部创新.
- 全球和跨部门的技术政策对于加速其他行业 (如航运和航空) 的低碳转型至关重要.
- 现有的理论需要纳入技术和企业之间的相互依赖,以获得全面的理解.
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