保护中国的长期可持续性,免受系统性破坏因素的影响
Ke Li1, Lei Gao2, Zhaoxia Guo1
1Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China.
Nature communications
|June 24, 2024
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 社会经济学 社会经济学
- 可持续性科学是一种科学.
背景情况:
- 中国的长期可持续性受到社会经济和环境不确定性的威胁.
- 确定了五个主要的系统性风险驱动因素 (破坏因素):流行病,人口老龄化/人口缩,脱全球化,气候变化和生物多样性丧失.
研究的目的:
- 量化这些破坏因素对中国长期可持续发展的影响,用17个可持续发展目标 (SDGs) 来衡量.
- 评估政策干预措施在缓解这些风险方面的潜在有效性.
主要方法:
- 利用集成模拟模型分析了五个破坏因素对中国可持续发展目标得分的影响.
- 根据不同情景预测的影响,包括基线,仅扰乱因素和政策干预.
主要成果:
- 人口老龄化/人口缩和气候变化被确定为最有影响力的破坏因素.
- 如果不采取政策行动,所有破坏因素的综合影响可能会使中国的可持续发展目标得分下降2.1 (2030) 和7.0 (2050).
- 综合政策显示出增强性和改善可持续性成果的潜力.
结论:
- 中国面临着由已识别的系统性风险带来的重大可持续性挑战.
- 积极主动,综合的政策干预对于建立性和实现可持续发展目标至关重要.
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