预计随着全球环境变化而导致棕色藻和海草的消失
Federica Manca1, Lisandro Benedetti-Cecchi2, Corey J A Bradshaw3,4
1Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, PO Box 65, Viikinkaari 1, 00014, Helsinki, Finland. federica.manca@helsinki.fi.
Nature communications
|June 24, 2024
概括
由于气候变化,海洋巨型植物 (海藻和海草) 的多样性面临着2100年的显著下降和息地丧失. 极地地区可能会出现息地扩张,但预计全球损失.
科学领域:
- 海洋生态海洋生态学
- 气候变化影响 气候变化影响
- 生物多样性建模模型
背景情况:
- 陆地生物多样性丧失得到了很好的研究,但海洋生物多样性变化,特别是生态系统结构性物种的变化,仍然在很大程度上未被探索.
- 巨生物,包括棕色巨藻和海草,是海洋生态系统中关键的功能群体.
研究的目的:
- 在未来的气候变化场景下,模拟海洋巨型植物分布的全球变化.
- 预测到本世纪末巨生物多样性,范围和适合息地的变化.
主要方法:
- 模拟了207种棕色大藻和海草物种的未来分布.
- 利用各种气候变化预测下的高时间和空间分辨率数据.
- 量化当地多样性,物种范围和适合息地区域的预测变化.
主要成果:
- 预计到2100年,当地巨型植物多样性平均下降3-4%.
- 估计17-22%的地区可能会失去至少10%的巨型植物物种.
- 预测目前巨型植物范围的5-6%侵蚀以及高度适合息地的全球大幅减少 (78-96%).
- 表明巨生物息地的极端转移显著,极地地区的潜在扩张.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将导致全球海洋巨生物多样性和息地的显著下降.
- 预计将出现大量的息地重新分配,极地地区可能有所增加,但全球总体损失.
- 这些变化凸显了海洋生态系统的脆弱性和缓解气候变化的必要性.
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