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对乳牛的异常体温概率预测模型 (ABTP) 的建立和风险因素评估
Tsair-Fwu Lee1,2,3,4,5, Chien-Liang Chiu1, Yen-Hsien Liu1
1Department of Electronic Engineering, National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung, 80778, Taiwan.
Scientific reports
|June 24, 2024
概括
这项研究使用环境和生理数据开发了乳牛异常体温概率 (ABTP) 的预测模型. 这些模型为热应激提供了早期警告,改善了牛的福利和农场的生产力.
科学领域:
- 动物科学动物科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 乳牛由于气候变化加剧的热应激,面临着重大的福利和生产力挑战.
- 早期发现异常体温对于及时干预和缓解策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证乳牛异常体温概率 (ABTP) 的预测模型.
- 确定影响乳牛体温的关键环境和生理因素.
- 为奶牛农场的热应激管理提供早期预警系统.
主要方法:
- 使用最小绝对收缩和选择运算符 (LASSO) 算法进行数据分析.
- 开发和评估了多种预测模型:莱曼·库彻-伯曼 (LKB),物流,舒尔泰斯和普奥森.
- 分析了320头奶牛的环境和生理数据,重点关注温度湿度指数 (THI).
主要成果:
- 成功验证了多种模型来预测乳牛的异常体温.
- 在使用AUC,Brier分数和Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) 测试等指标的模型预测中证明了高准确性.
- 确定了温度-湿度指数 (THI) 作为异常体温的关键决定因素.
结论:
- 开发的模型提供了对乳牛热应激影响的可靠预测.
- 创新型号提高了早期检测和管理异常体温,改善牛的福利和生产力.
- 这项研究对在不断变化的气候条件下牲畜的农场管理实践做出了重大贡献.
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