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使用模拟建模来告知干预和实施选择在一个快速的利益相关者参与的混合有效性-实施随机试验

Jessica E Becker¹, Fatma M Shebl^2,3, Elena Losina^3,4

¹Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, NYU Langone Health, One Park Avenue, Seventh Floor, New York, NY, 10016, USA. Jessica.Becker@nyulangone.org.

Implementation science communications

|June 24, 2024

概括

模拟建模确定疫苗接种是减少小组家庭COVID-19感染的关键. 这种方法在公共卫生紧急情况期间迅速为弱势群体提供了定制干预措施.

科学领域:

公共卫生公共卫生
流行病学流行病学
医疗保健服务研究医疗服务研究

背景情况:

实施研究通常假设事先建立的基于证据的实践,这在公共卫生紧急情况下往往是不可行的.
本研究探讨了在危机情况下需要快速干预设计的必要性,重点关注集体住房中的弱势群体.
使用模拟模型来告知利益相关者参与的过程,以制定定制的COVID-19缓解策略.

研究的目的:

采用模拟模型指导针对COVID-19缓解的量身定制干预和实施战略的快速开发.
为参与利益相关者参与的过程提供信息,以保护在团体家庭中患有严重精神疾病 (SMI) 和智力/发育障碍 (ID/DD) 的个人.
在小组家庭环境中评估各种COVID-19缓解策略的有效性.

主要方法:

一个经过验证的COVID-19传播的动态微型模拟模型被用于评估小组家庭工作人员和居民的缓解策略.
模型输入来自利益相关者数据,公共记录和文献,评估查,测试,隔离,PPE和疫苗接种等策略.
多学科的利益相关者随着流行病的演变反复提供了投入,对参数不确定性进行了敏感性分析.

主要成果:

疫苗接种预计将导致感染减少最多; 增加接种率至90%,显著减少居民和工作人员感染.
常规测试显示效果很小,而模拟去除掩护会增加感染.
模拟结果为混合试验选择"量身定制的最佳实践"干预方案提供了信息.

结论:

接种疫苗和解决工作人员对疫苗的犹对于减轻团体住房中COVID-19风险至关重要.
在混合试验中,模拟建模在快速告知预防和实施策略选择方面被证明是有效的.
这种基于模拟的方法对于未来快速部署干预措施在量身定制的数据稀缺的情况下是有价值的.

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