外部验证和进一步探索基于问卷和日常生活中干加速度计的跌落预测模型
Yuge Zhang1, Roel H A Weijer2, Kimberley S van Schooten3
1Department of Human Movement Sciences, Faculty of Behavioural and Movement Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Journal of the American Medical Directors Association
|June 25, 2024
概括
外部验证显示,使用干加速的秋季预测模型在新队列中表现不佳. 步行特征与跌倒的相关性有限,强调需要多样化的验证数据集.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 生物力学 生物力学
- 临床流行病学临床流行病学
背景情况:
- 门诊行李箱加速测量提供了对日常活动的洞察力,并已用于跌倒风险预测.
- 这些秋季预测模型的外部验证对于临床实施至关重要,但往往缺乏.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用车加速数据,对现有的三种落预测模型进行外部验证.
- 在重新校准和对新队列的参数优化后评估这些模型的性能.
主要方法:
- 收集了263名居住在社区的老年人 (平均年龄为71.8岁) 的干加速数据和问卷信息.
- 通过使用原始系数/截止值,重新校准和队列优化参数验证了三种下降预测模型.
- 在6个月内跟踪参与者以记录跌倒的发生率 (39.9%经历过跌倒).
主要成果:
- 所有模型都显示精度 (0.20-0.49) 和灵敏度 (0.32-0.58) 差,具有良好的特异性 (0.45-0.89).
- 再校准和参数优化在模型性能方面取得了有限的改进.
- 大多数步行特征,除了中侧侧调,在这个队列中没有与跌倒有显著的关联.
结论:
- 现有的基于干部加速的跌落预测模型在外部验证时显示出有限的有效性.
- 模型性能高度针对群体,需要大型,具有代表性的数据集和外部验证群体.
- 需要进一步的研究,以开发强大的和可通用的跌倒风险预测策略.
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