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在多病症患者中,开发和外部验证一个预后模型,用于重新入院或死亡的时间
Stine Eidhammer Rognan1, Liv Mathiesen2, Marianne Lea3
1Department of Pharmaceutical Services, Oslo Hospital Pharmacy, Hospital Pharmacies Enterprise, South Eastern Norway, Oslo, Norway.
Research in social & administrative pharmacy : RSAP
|June 25, 2024
概括
一个新的预后模型使用查尔森并发症指数,以前的入院和心力衰竭来识别高风险再入院或死亡的多病患者. 这种工具有助于有效预测患者的结果.
科学领域:
- 临床医学 临床医学
- 药物经济学 药物经济学
- 老年病的医生 老年病的医生
背景情况:
- 多病症患者面临着重入院和死亡的高风险.
- 预测模型对于识别有风险的个体和优化护理至关重要.
- 临床药剂师的干预措施旨在减少这一群体的再入院.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种预后模型,用于预测多病患者的再入院和/或死亡.
- 确定患者子组,他们可能从临床药剂师干预中获益最多.
主要方法:
- 使用随机对照试验数据开发了一个多变量预后模型.
- 该模型通过使用独立的队列进行了外部验证.
- 数据包括患者人口统计,并发症 (查尔森并发症指数) 和住院史.
主要成果:
- 预后模型将查尔森并发症指数,先前的住院和心力衰竭作为关键预测因素纳入.
- 在18个月内,在导出 (76.9%) 和验证 (71.1%) 组中观察到高回收或死亡率.
- 临床药剂师干预在特定的子组中没有显示出显著的疗效.
结论:
- 使用查尔森并发症指数,先前入院和心力衰竭的预后模型为多病患者的再入院和死亡提供了有效的风险估计.
- 该模型可以帮助根据患者的风险对患者进行分层.
- 需要进一步的研究来确定从药剂师干预中受益的特定患者群体.
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