预测韩国注册护士需求及其决定因素的准确性
1Department of Nursing, College of Health and Welfare, Gangneung-Wonju National University, 26403, Wonju-Si, Gangwon-Do, Republic of Korea. suyongjeong@gmail.com.
Human resources for health
|June 25, 2024
概括
评估过去注册护士 (RN) 需求预测显示,平均误差为34.8%. 随着预测时间和数据周期的延长,预测准确性下降,突出显示需要更好的RN生产率假设.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健工作人员分析
- 护理经济学 护理经济学
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
背景情况:
- 准确的需求预测对注册护士 (RN) 劳动力至关重要,但对过去预测准确性的经验评估很少.
- 了解以前的RN需求预测的可靠性对于有效的劳动力规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估历史注册护士 (RN) 需求预测研究的后续准确性.
- 确定影响RN需求预测准确性的关键决定因素.
主要方法:
- 对国家报告和关于RN需求预测的文章进行系统审查.
- 计算平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE) 以实际雇佣的RN来量化预测误差.
- 非参数统计试验 (曼-惠特尼,克鲁斯卡尔-瓦利斯) 来分析影响MAPE的因素.
主要成果:
- 对105个预测期和196个预测的分析显示,平均MAPE为34.8%.
- 注册护士 (RN) 的生产率假设对预测准确性产生了重大影响.
- 较长的预测时间和数据周期与更大的预测错误 (更高的MAPE) 有关.
- 根据研究人员特定的因素,没有发现准确度的显著差异.
结论:
- 提高注册护士 (RN) 需求预测准确度需要精确测量RN工作量和生产力.
- 未来的研究应该专注于开发反映现实世界RN生产力的方法,以获得更可靠的预测.
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