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气候变化和一个冬眠的袋鼠种群的持续性
Roberto F Nespolo1,2,3, Julian F Quintero-Galvis1,2, Francisco E Fontúrbel2,4
1Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Universidad Austral de Chile , Valdivia, Chile.
Proceedings. Biological sciences
|June 26, 2024
概括
气候变化通过改变生存至关重要的冬季温度来威胁冬眠哺乳动物. 模型预测某些种群的数量下降,而另一些种群可能会在较冷的环境中持续存在.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 生理学 生理学 生理学
背景情况:
- 气候变化给生物体带来了生理挑战,超过了适应率.
- 冬眠的哺乳动物容易受到影响冬季生存和能源需求的温度变化的影响.
- 由于超过温度值而引起的的兴奋增加了当食物稀缺时的能源需求.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个数值模型来预测异热物种的能量消耗.
- 在各种气候变化场景下模拟冬眠哺乳动物的冬季生存.
- 评估气候变化对monito del monte (Dromiciops) 种群的影响.
主要方法:
- 异热物种能量消耗的数值模型的参数化.
- 在政府间气候变化小组 (IPCC) 的四个气候变化场景中建模冬季生存.
- 使用monito del monte (Dromiciops) 作为南美冬眠者的模型物种.
主要成果:
- 预计Dromiciops bozinovici的北部和沿海种群将会减少.
- 这些种群面临着由于寒冷天气不足和息地碎片化而减少的冬季生存率.
- 预计安第斯山脉和高地群体在较冷的环境中会持续存在并壮成长.
结论:
- 简单的生理模型对于预测物种对气候变暖的短期反应至关重要.
- 全球广泛的冬眠哺乳动物种群可能面临着类似的气候驱动的生存挑战.
- 保护战略必须考虑区域气候预测和息地特定的脆弱性.
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