钱可以买下国会的控制权吗?
William Minozzi1, Gabriel J Madson2, David A Siegel3
1Department of Political Science, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States of America.
PloS one
|June 26, 2024
概括
政治竞选支出可以显著影响选举结果,但它确保美国国会多数的能力已经减弱. 最近的分析揭示了支出对竞选结果的非线性影响.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 现有的关于竞选融资的研究往往忽视了不同竞选活动的支出异质性.
- 之前的研究未能将竞选支出在多个选举中的影响汇总起来,从而限制了对系统级影响的洞察力.
- 足够的竞选支出能否确保美国国会多数,这一问题仍未得到充分解决.
研究的目的:
- 在系统层面分析竞选支出,以确定其对美国国会控制的影响.
- 调查个人竞选活动中支出对选举结果的非线性边际影响.
- 评估通过竞选支出实现国会多数的历史和当前可行性.
主要方法:
- 采用灵活的机器学习方法来建模竞选支出与选举结果之间的关系.
- 进行了系统层面的分析,汇总了所有美国国会竞选活动的影响.
- 审查的支出水平及其对随着时间的推移对座位波动的影响,不包括极端支出水平.
主要成果:
- 竞选支出显示了在单个竞选活动层面对结果的实质性和非线性边际影响.
- 从历史上看,在观察到的支出水平下,可以实现足够改变国会控制的重大席位波动.
- 竞选支出改变国会控制的可能性在过去十年里显著下降.
结论:
- 系统层面的分析显示,虽然竞选支出具有非线性效应,但其制造美国国会多数的能力已经减弱.
- 该研究强调了竞选支出的重大潜在影响,包括其消除的后果.
- 未来的研究应该考虑竞选融资的变化动态及其对选举控制的回报日益减少.
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