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在气候变化场景下预测Hypericum perforatum的潜在分布,使用最大值模型

Yulan Hao¹, Pengbin Dong¹, Liyang Wang¹

¹College of Agronomy, Gansu Provincial Key Laboratory of Good Agricultural Production for Traditional Chinese Medicines, Gansu Provincial Engineering Research Centre for Medical Plant Cultivation and Breeding, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China.

|June 27, 2024

概括

野生圣约翰草 (Hypericum perforatum) 的资源正在减少. 气候变化影响其分布,预计适合的地区将向西北和更高的海拔地区扩大,有助于保护工作.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
生物地理学生物地理学
保护生物学保护生物学

背景情况:

中国传统药物材料Hypericum perforatum由于气候变化和人类活动而面临资源枯竭.
由于产量和活性成分含量不稳定,H. perforatum的人工栽培受到阻碍.
迫切需要科学依据来指导H. perforatum的保护和可持续利用.

研究的目的:

为了确定影响H. perforatum分布的关键气候因素.
预测H. perforatum在过去,现在和未来的时间线上可能适合的分布区域.
为了确定空间分布的动态和中心移动趋势.

主要方法:

利用894个分布记录和36个气候环境因素对H. perforatum.
采用MaxEnt模型和GIS技术进行空间分析.
应用生态利基理论原则用于预测建模.

主要成果:

确定了主要的气候因素:Srad4,Srad9,Bio9,Srad11,Bio1和Bio12.
未来的气候场景预测适合分布区域的显著扩张.
观察到向西北和高海拔地区的中心部迁移趋势.

结论:

预计气候变化将扩大适合H. perforatum的息地.
了解分布动态对于有效的保护策略至关重要.
结果为可持续管理H. perforatum资源提供了科学基础.

关键词:

地理信息系统技术技术是什么?这种植物名为Hypericum perforatum.马克森特模型的模型.气候变化气候变化气候变化适合的分布区域适合的分布区域.

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