日本医疗服务不足地区未来可能发生的变化:基于地理信息系统的模拟研究
Akihisa Nakamura1, Eiji Satoh2, Tatsuya Suzuki3
1Division of Community and Family Medicine, Center for Community Medicine, Jichi Medical University, Shimotsuke City 329-0498, Japan; m06066an@jichi.ac.jp.
Journal of market access & health policy
|June 27, 2024
概括
日本 日本 日本 日本 日本.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 医疗保健政策 医疗保健政策
- 地理信息系统 (GIS) 是一个地理信息系统.
背景情况:
- 人口减少趋势影响医疗保健的获取,特别是在医疗服务不足的地区 (MUAs).
- 日本面临着越来越多的农村地区人口减少.
- 了解未来的MUA动态对于医疗保健规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了模拟日本 MUA 的未来人口和土地面积变化.
- 预测MUA从2020年到2050年的演变.
- 为农村医疗保健政策调整提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用1公里网格数据,日本各地的诊所和医院位置 (2020).
- 定义的MUAs是医疗机构4公里半径以外的区域.
- 采用了地理信息系统分析,预测每10年到2050年,MUA人口和土地面积的变化.
- 模拟医疗机构关闭,如果周围的人口下降到1000以下.
主要成果:
- 预计MUA人口将从2020年的964,310 (0.77%) 减少到2050年的763,410 (0.75%).
- 预计MUA的土地面积将增加,到2050年,日本13%的网格将成为新的MUA (31%的增长).
- 大约有1,601个医疗机构可能面临关闭,因为它们靠近人口稀少的地区.
结论:
- 日本的MUAs将经历人口减少,但土地面积扩大.
- 这些人口变化需要改革农村医疗保健政策和系统.
- 积极的规划对于在不断变化的 MUA 中保持医疗保健的准入至关重要.
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