模拟越南帝国的兴衰周期
Peng Lu1,2,3, Dianhan Chen1,2,3, Bo Li4,5
1Department of Sociology, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China.
Fundamental research
|June 27, 2024
概括
像越南这样的帝国的生命周期是由人口和土地动态驱动的. 基于代理的建模揭示了这些因素解释了历史帝国的持续时间,并可以预测未来的趋势.
科学领域:
- * 历史社会学 历史社会学
- * 计算社会科学 * 计算社会科学
- * 系统动力学 * 系统动力学
背景情况:
- * 世界各地的帝国表现出由各种因素影响的循环生活模式.
- *越南历史有大约十个帝国/王朝,跨越了一个千年.
- *了解这些模式对于理解社会演变至关重要.
研究的目的:
- * 调查越南帝国生命周期模式的潜在机制.
- *将生命周期模型和基于代理的建模应用于历史数据.
- *分析人类与土地关系对帝国动态的宏观影响.
主要方法:
- *利用生命周期模型和基于代理的建模 (ABM).
- * 宏观分析侧重于传统农业帝国的人与土地的关系.
- *对土地和人口之间的平衡以及个别战略的收入-成本动态进行了研究.
主要成果:
- *模拟准确匹配越南的历史帝国持续时间.
- *最佳解决方案显示了模拟和真实历史数据 (直方图和内核密度) 之间的强烈一致.
- * 人与土地的关系被认为是塑造帝国生命周期的关键因素.
结论:
- * 历史上的社会发展遵循着由进化规则支配的动态过程.
- *基于代理的建模提供了一个强大的框架来模拟和理解历史模式.
- *这项研究的结果使得可以进行逆向计算,模拟和对未来国家轨迹的潜在预测.
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