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红番茄蜘蛛在气候变化下的当前和未来的入侵风险

Wenjie Yan^1,2, Liyan Du^1,2, Huai Liu^1,2

¹Key Laboratory of Entomology and Pest Control Engineering, College of Plant Protection, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China.

Journal of economic entomology

|June 27, 2024

概括

番茄红色蜘蛛,Tetranychus evansi,正在扩大其全球范围,特别是在北方. 这种害虫对日类作物构成重大威胁,需要采取积极的管理策略.

科学领域:

农业昆虫学农业昆虫学
侵入性物种生态学生态学
生物地理学是生物地理学.

背景情况:

番茄红色蜘蛛 (Tetranychus evansi) 是Solanaceous作物的主要害虫,导致全球经济的重大损失.
了解其分布对于有效的害虫管理和防止进一步的农业损害至关重要.

研究的目的:

预测Tetranychus evansi.目前和未来的全球分布情况.
确定影响其地理范围的关键气候因素.
为预防和管理这种入侵性害虫的战略提供信息.

主要方法:

使用最大 (MaxEnt) 建模方法.
纳入物种发生记录和高分辨率环境数据.
使用曲线下的面积 (AUC) 度量来验证模型性能.

主要成果:

该模型表现出高性能 (AUC > 0.96).
影响分布的关键生物气候变量是最冷的季度平均温度 (bio11),最冷的月度最低温度 (bio6) 和年度降水量 (bio12).
适合息地预测遍及各大洲 (南极洲除外),南美洲,非洲和大洋洲的重要地区,显示向北扩张的趋势.

结论:

这项研究成功地模拟了Tetranychus evansi.的潜在分布.
气候变化可能会促进这种害虫向北扩散.
研究结果为全球制定有针对性的害虫管理和控制策略提供了关键的见解.

关键词:

生物气候变量生物气候变量气候变化气候变化气候变化扩张扩张扩张虫害虫虫虫的适合的区域适合的区域.

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