估计华盛顿州COVID-19后情况的负担和分布,2020年3月-2023年10月
Arran Hamlet1,2, Daniel Hoffman3, Sharon Saydah4
1Epidemic Intelligence Service, Division of Workforce Development, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Preventing chronic disease
|June 27, 2024
概括
据估计,COVID-19后疾病 (PCC) 影响了华盛顿成年人的6.4%. 这项研究制定了一个框架来跟踪PCC的流行,揭示了人口和地理的差异,以指导公共卫生应对.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 后COVID-19状态 (PCC) 是一个重要的公共卫生问题,流行数据稀少.
- 估计PCC在不同人群中的发病率和流行率对于有效的干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一个框架来估计华盛顿州PCC的发病率和流行率.
- 分析随着时间的推移,PCC分布在各种人口亚组和地理区域.
主要方法:
- 利用数学分隔模型整合报告的COVID-19病例,住院和调查数据.
- 采用微分方程来建模PCC进展,并纳入人口统计学变量 (年龄,性别,种族/种族,疫苗接种情况) 和县级数据.
- 估计2020年3月至2023年10月的SARS-CoV-2感染情况.
主要成果:
- 截至2023年10月,估计约6.4%的华盛顿成年人经历了PCC.
- 确定了PCC流行和发病率在各年龄组,性别和种族/民族之间存在的显著时间变化和差异.
- 观察到明显的地理异质性,华盛顿中部和东部的PCC率更高.
结论:
- 准确估计PCC流行率,考虑到异质性,对于公共卫生行动至关重要.
- 开发的框架为PCC持续的监督和资源分配提供了一个强大的方法.
- 调查结果突出了一些差异,这些差异可以为针对PCC的目标意识和应对策略提供信息.
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