设定界限 - - 一种估计乳牛损失差距的方法
João Sucena Afonso1,2, William Gilbert1,2, Georgios Oikonomou1
1Department of Livestock and One Health, Institute of Infection, Veterinary & Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom.
PloS one
|June 27, 2024
概括
由于效率低下,英国奶牛养殖业面临重大财务损失. 本研究量化了英格兰和威尔士乳制品行业的年度"损失差距",确定了改善农场管理的关键成本驱动因素.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 动物科学动物科学
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
背景情况:
- 英国乳制品生产重组,增加了牛群规模,影响了奶牛健康和农场业务业绩.
- 了解低效率对于乳制品农场的决策至关重要,但以前的收益差距分析侧重于特定的原因,限制了对相对贡献的理解.
- 需要采取全面的方法来评估各种因素对奶牛场利能力的总体经济影响.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计年度年度的估计.
- 损失的差距 损失的差距
- 在英格兰和威尔士的乳制品行业 (收益损失和健康支出) 中.
- 制定一个框架,以了解特定原因对乳制品养殖总经济损失的相对贡献.
- 提供数据驱动的洞察力,以改善奶牛农场管理的决策和提高整体业务绩效.
主要方法:
- 通过使用决定性模型,采用了基准分析方法和场景分析.
- 该模型利用了企业预算,对奶牛和年轻牲畜进行了单独的处理,而奶牛是单位.
- 场景涉及对牛奶生产,成本,市场价格,死亡率和医疗支出的不同假设,以估计损失差距.
主要成果:
- 据估计,英国和威尔士整个乳制品行业的年度损失差距为1.48亿英至2.27亿英.
- 对兽医服务,药品和牲畜替代的成本降低是估计损失差距的重要贡献者.
- 牛奶价格对估计有很大影响,牛奶收入占损失差距的30%以上,与表现最好的农场进行比较.
结论:
- 开发的框架有效地限制了对导致乳牛损失的具体原因的理解,防止过高估计.
- 该研究强调了卫生支出和收益损失的重大经济影响,强调了有针对性的干预措施的必要性.
- 调查结果为英国乳制品行业更准确的财务规划和战略决策提供了基础,以减轻经济损失.
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