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昼夜复合温度极端和中国死亡率之间的关联的驱动因素
Jun Yang1, Maigeng Zhou2, Cui Guo3
1School of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 511436, China. yangjun_eci@jnu.edu.cn.
Communications medicine
|June 27, 2024
概括
复合极端温度事件比单日事件带来更高的死亡风险. 潮湿的条件加剧了热浪的影响,而干燥的空气加剧了寒流的危险,需要更新公共卫生策略.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候变化流行病学 气候变化流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在增加极端温度事件的频率和强度.
- 关于复合极端温度事件对健康的影响的证据有限.
研究的目的:
- 评估与复合昼夜极端温度事件相关的死亡风险.
- 调查湿度和其他因素对这些风险的影响.
主要方法:
- 全国横截面研究使用来自中国161个地区/县的每日天气和死亡率数据 (2007-2013).
- 采用了近比松 (Quasi-Poisson) 通用线性模型和随机效应元分析.
- 分层分析检查了湿度,个体和区域特征的影响.
主要成果:
- 与单一时期的极端相比,复合的昼夜极端温度显著增加了死亡风险.
- 高湿度放大了热浪死亡风险;干燥的空气加剧了寒流风险.
- 老年人,文盲以及患有缺血性心脏或呼吸道疾病的人最容易受到伤害. 社区因素,如人口规模,城市化,老年人比例和PM2.5影响了热浪风险.
结论:
- 复合极端温度事件,特别是在潮湿的条件下,带来了相当大的死亡风险.
- 研究结果强调需要将复合事件和湿度纳入公共卫生警告和城市规划.
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