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职业生涯因素与在游泳中赢得奥运奖牌有关
Aslan Tchamkerten1, Paul Chaudron1, Nicolas Girard1
1Department of Communications and Electronics, Institute Polytechnique de Paris, Telecom Paris, Paris, France.
PloS one
|June 28, 2024
概括
游泳者的表现进展显著影响奖牌的成功. 持续的季节性增长和减少回归增加了奖牌几率,而强的竞赛前改进带来了实质性的成功提升.
科学领域:
- 运动科学 运动科学 运动科学
- 业绩分析 业绩分析 业绩分析
背景情况:
- 精英游泳者的职业生涯轨迹和奖牌结果是复杂的.
- 了解预测奥运会 (OG) 和世界锦标赛 (WC) 成功的因素对于运动员的发展至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查职业发展模式与在精英游泳中获得奖牌之间的关联.
- 确定预测大赛中奖牌成功的关键绩效指标.
主要方法:
- 分析了使用FINA排名的1535名精英游泳运动员 (1973年至今) 的4631次游泳表现.
- 将逻辑回归应用于包括12个预测变量在内的数据集.
- 功能选择确定了9个关键预测器,用于预测奖牌结果.
主要成果:
- 一个预测模型在识别奖牌得主时达到~90%的准确性.
- 增加季节性进展 (max-progr, n-prog) 显著提高了奖牌几率 (分别是1.64倍和1.44倍).
- 降低绩效回归 (n-reg) 和提高绩效2-6个月竞赛前 (P6,P2) 与更高的奖牌概率有很强的相关性.
结论:
- 从赛季到赛季的表现进步和尽量减少回归对于精英游泳者的奖牌成功至关重要.
- 在重大赛事之前的几个月内显著提高表现,大大增加了奖牌机会.
- 该研究提供了一个数据驱动的框架,用于优化游泳者的训练和竞争战略.
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