在新古典的框架下,公共卫生事件和经济增长
Yunhao Wang1, Yixuan Liu2, Zhihan Peng3
1Key Laboratory for Applied Statistics of MOE, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, 130024, China.
BMC public health
|June 29, 2024
概括
公共卫生事件需要加强预防和控制强度 (PCI). 温和的PCI平衡了生命保护和经济增长,优化了收入和就业.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 像COVID-19这样的公共卫生事件 (PHEs) 对人类生命,健康和经济增长构成重大威胁.
- 需要加强定期预防和控制 (RPC) 策略,以减轻PHEs的影响.
- 预防和控制强度 (PCI) 的概念对于管理PHE至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 建立一个新古典的经济增长模式,以平衡生命保护和经济增长.
- 通过人口动态和资本积累来分析PCI对经济增长的机制.
- 确定最佳的PCI和消费战略,以最大限度地提高人均可支配收入.
主要方法:
- 开发一种包含人口动态和资本积累的新古典经济增长模型.
- 分析实现经济稳定状态的条件,以最佳的PCI.
- 为确定最佳PCI和消费策略而开发算法.
- 模拟以量化PCI和经济指标之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 在平衡状态下,PCI与人均资本,人均产出和人均消费之间存在一个反转的U形关系.
- 该研究确定了稳定状态经济中最佳PCI的条件.
- 模拟结果量化了PCI对关键经济变量的影响.
结论:
- 适度的PCI有利于平衡生命保护和经济增长.
- 将温和的PCI与协调的收入分配政策相结合,可以减轻PHE引起的失业冲击.
- 调查结果为决策者提供了关于管理PHE及其经济后果的见解.
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