通过将卫星图像与作物模型相结合,同时预测小麦-玉米的产量和成熟日期
Yanxi Zhao1,2, Dengpan Xiao1,2, Huizi Bai3
1College of Geography Science, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang, China.
Journal of the science of food and agriculture
|June 29, 2024
概括
这项研究开发了一种模型,用于预测北中国平原的小麦-玉米产量和成熟日期. 该模型准确预测作物生产,帮助粮食安全工作.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 遥感 遥感 遥感 遥感
- 作物建模作物建模
背景情况:
- 同时预测作物产量和成熟度对于粮食安全至关重要.
- 在北中国平原 (NCP) 的小麦-玉米同时预测上存在有限的研究.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个预测模型的到期日期和收益率 (PMMY) 为小麦-玉米在NCP.
- 用多源卫星数据和已建立的模拟模型来评估模型的性能.
主要方法:
- 利用多源卫星图像,农业生产系统模拟器 (APSIM) 模型和随机森林 (RF) 算法.
- 开发了成熟日期和收益率 (PMMY) 的预测模型.
主要成果:
- 在PMMY模型中,使用峰叶面积指数 (LAI) 和累积蒸发转化率 (ET) 证明了最佳性能.
- 与单独使用两者相比,与峰值LAI和累积ET相比,模型准确性得到改善.
- 从2001-2005年到2016-2020年,观察到成熟的1-2天的进步和659-706公斤-1的产量增加,与最低气温和降水的上升有关.
结论:
- 同时预测产量和成熟度对于指导农业生产和加强粮食安全至关重要.
- 开发的PMMY模型为NCP的作物管理提供了有价值的工具.
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